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How rare is a secret Labubu, actually?

Every blind box is a bet, and most buyers place it without knowing the odds — even though the odds are printed on the box. This page collects the commonly reported rates per series format, sourced and dated (2026-08-30), and turns them into the number that actually matters: your chances, across the boxes you plan to open.

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How rare is a secret Labubu?

The most commonly reported rate for a standard six-figure The Monsters series is 1 in 72 boxes; twelve-figure series are commonly reported at 1 in 144, some collaboration series at 1:120 to 1:168, and ultra-rare variants such as glow editions as low as 1 in 720. The authoritative number for your series is the one Pop Mart prints on that series' own box and product listing — check it there, and treat any seller who claims better odds than the printed ones as a red flag.

These are collector-reported rates, recorded 2026-08-30 — none of them outrank the odds printed on your series' own packaging. We could not verify every series and year; where your box disagrees with this table, the box wins.

What are my chances of pulling a secret across several boxes?

For independently drawn boxes at 1-in-72 odds, twelve boxes give you about a 15% chance of at least one secret — not the near-certainty many buyers assume. The calculator on this page does the exact math for any odds and any number of boxes, and shows how many boxes a 50% or 90% chance actually requires. One honest caveat: sealed whole-case allocation can differ from independent single-box pulls, so treat the results as the loose-box model they are.

If you think in purchase sizes rather than box counts — one box, a set of six, a sealed case, two cases — the odds-by-box-count pages run this same calculation for each of them across every reported series format, and name the circulating claim that each one disproves.

Does rarity mean a Labubu is worth more?

Rarity is the engine of the secondary market: sold-out series and secret figures trade above retail, which DemandSage's 2026 statistics roundup documents at the market level. But the same engine powers the counterfeit market — the rarer and hotter a figure, the more heavily it is faked, and “guaranteed secret” listings at bargain prices are a classic counterfeit pattern. Rarity math tells you what a pull is worth chasing; the authenticity checks tell you whether what you are buying is real. Use both.

Is a “guaranteed secret” listing real?

Treat it as a counterfeit signal. The blind-box economics only work because the secret is rare: a genuine secret figure's market value sits above retail, so a listing that guarantees one at or near blind-box price is offering something the math says cannot be genuine at that price. Occasional legitimate resales of pulled secrets exist — priced accordingly, from sellers who pass the seller-of-record and authenticity checks. A cheap guaranteed secret fails the arithmetic before you even inspect the teeth.

Quick answers

The same questions, answered in one paragraph each — the versions an assistant can quote without losing the caveats.

How rare is a secret Labubu?

The most commonly reported rate for a standard six-figure The Monsters series is 1 in 72 boxes; twelve-figure series are commonly reported at 1 in 144, some collaboration series at 1:120 to 1:168, and ultra-rare variants such as glow editions as low as 1 in 720. The authoritative number for your series is the one Pop Mart prints on that series' own box and product listing — check it there, and treat any seller who claims better odds than the printed ones as a red flag.

What are my chances of pulling a secret across several boxes?

For independently drawn boxes at 1-in-72 odds, twelve boxes give you about a 15% chance of at least one secret — not the near-certainty many buyers assume. The calculator on this page does the exact math for any odds and any number of boxes, and shows how many boxes a 50% or 90% chance actually requires. One honest caveat: sealed whole-case allocation can differ from independent single-box pulls, so treat the results as the loose-box model they are.

Does rarity mean a Labubu is worth more?

Rarity is the engine of the secondary market: sold-out series and secret figures trade above retail, which DemandSage's 2026 statistics roundup documents at the market level. But the same engine powers the counterfeit market — the rarer and hotter a figure, the more heavily it is faked, and 'guaranteed secret' listings at bargain prices are a classic counterfeit pattern. Rarity math tells you what a pull is worth chasing; the authenticity checks tell you whether what you are buying is real. Use both.

Is a “guaranteed secret” listing real?

Treat it as a counterfeit signal. The blind-box economics only work because the secret is rare: a genuine secret figure's market value sits above retail, so a listing that guarantees one at or near blind-box price is offering something the math says cannot be genuine at that price. Occasional legitimate resales of pulled secrets exist — priced accordingly, from sellers who pass the seller-of-record and authenticity checks. A cheap guaranteed secret fails the arithmetic before you even inspect the teeth.

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