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Labubu secret odds for 72 boxes

Seventy-two boxes. Surely by now? The number in the printed odds, which nearly everyone reads as the number of boxes that gets you there. It is the most counterintuitive result on this site. Last updated 2026-08-31.

63.5% chance of at least one secret from seventy-two boxes — at 1:72 printed odds

The claim this box count disproves

Circulating: “1:72 means the 72nd box is the one.”

Actually: Buying all seventy-two gives you a 63.5% chance — better than a coin flip, and still more than a one-in-three chance of ending with nothing. “1 in 72” describes the rate per box, never a countdown. The expected number of secrets in 72 boxes is exactly one, and expecting one is not the same as getting one.

The math, in the open

For seventy-two boxes drawn independently, the chance of at least one secret is 1 − (1 − 1/N)72 and the expected count is simply 72/N. Across every reported series format:

Series formatPrinted oddsChance of at least one secret
Standard 6-figure series1:7263.5%
Some collab series (low end)1:12045.3%
Extended 12-figure series1:14439.5%
Some collab series (high end)1:16834.9%
Glow / ultra variants1:7209.5%

Model: independent single-box draws at the printed odds. Sealed-case allocation can differ — these numbers model loose boxes. The authoritative number is always the one printed on that series' own box; the rates here are collector-reported for orientation (sources in the dataset).

How many boxes for a serious chance?

Printed oddsBoxes for 50%Boxes for 90%
1:7250165
1:12083276
1:144100331
1:168117386
1:7204991657

What that costs — as a multiple, not a price

We do not print prices — they rotate with series and stock. As a multiple: the expected cost of one secret is 72× a single box at 1:72, 144× at 1:144 and 720× at 1:720. Seventy-two boxes covers 1.00 of that. Put your own local box price into the calculator on the psychology page.

Quick answers

What are the odds of a secret from seventy-two boxes?
At 1:72 printed odds the chance of at least one secret is 63.5%, and the expected number of secrets is 1.00. Rarer formats are lower: 39.5% at 1:144 and 9.5% at 1:720.

How many boxes would a 50 percent chance take?
At 1:72 it takes 50 boxes for 50 percent and 165 for 90 percent. At 1:144 it is 100 and 331; at 1:720 it is 499 and 1657.