Labubu secret odds for a full case of 12 boxes
The claim this box count disproves
Circulating: “A full case of twelve averages one secret.”
Actually: At 1:72 printed odds, twelve boxes average 0.17 secrets — about one secret per six cases, not one per case. A sealed case does typically guarantee one of each regular figure; that guarantee is about the regulars, and it has been widely repeated as though it covered the secret. It does not.
The math, in the open
For twelve boxes (a full case) drawn independently, the chance of at least one secret is 1 − (1 − 1/N)12 and the expected count is simply 12/N. Across every reported series format:
| Series format | Printed odds | Chance of at least one secret |
|---|---|---|
| Standard 6-figure series | 1:72 | 15.5% |
| Some collab series (low end) | 1:120 | 9.6% |
| Extended 12-figure series | 1:144 | 8.0% |
| Some collab series (high end) | 1:168 | 6.9% |
| Glow / ultra variants | 1:720 | 1.7% |
How many boxes for a serious chance?
| Printed odds | Boxes for 50% | Boxes for 90% |
|---|---|---|
| 1:72 | 50 | 165 |
| 1:120 | 83 | 276 |
| 1:144 | 100 | 331 |
| 1:168 | 117 | 386 |
| 1:720 | 499 | 1657 |
What that costs — as a multiple, not a price
We do not print prices — they rotate with series and stock. As a multiple: the expected cost of one secret is 72× a single box at 1:72, 144× at 1:144 and 720× at 1:720. Twelve boxes (a full case) covers 0.17 of that. Put your own local box price into the calculator on the psychology page.
Quick answers
What are the odds of a secret from twelve boxes (a full case)?
At 1:72 printed odds the chance of at least one secret is 15.5%, and the expected number of secrets is 0.17. Rarer formats are lower: 8.0% at 1:144 and 1.7% at 1:720.
How many boxes would a 50 percent chance take?
At 1:72 it takes 50 boxes for 50 percent and 165 for 90 percent. At 1:144 it is 100 and 331; at 1:720 it is 499 and 1657.