Labubu secret odds for 24 boxes (two cases)
The claim this box count disproves
Circulating: “I went through a case already, so I'm due.”
Actually: The boxes you already opened change nothing about the ones you have not. Doubling from twelve to twenty-four boxes does not double your chance from 15.5% to 31% either — independent draws compound, they do not add.
The math, in the open
For twenty-four boxes (two cases) drawn independently, the chance of at least one secret is 1 − (1 − 1/N)24 and the expected count is simply 24/N. Across every reported series format:
| Series format | Printed odds | Chance of at least one secret |
|---|---|---|
| Standard 6-figure series | 1:72 | 28.5% |
| Some collab series (low end) | 1:120 | 18.2% |
| Extended 12-figure series | 1:144 | 15.4% |
| Some collab series (high end) | 1:168 | 13.3% |
| Glow / ultra variants | 1:720 | 3.3% |
How many boxes for a serious chance?
| Printed odds | Boxes for 50% | Boxes for 90% |
|---|---|---|
| 1:72 | 50 | 165 |
| 1:120 | 83 | 276 |
| 1:144 | 100 | 331 |
| 1:168 | 117 | 386 |
| 1:720 | 499 | 1657 |
What that costs — as a multiple, not a price
We do not print prices — they rotate with series and stock. As a multiple: the expected cost of one secret is 72× a single box at 1:72, 144× at 1:144 and 720× at 1:720. Twenty-four boxes (two cases) covers 0.33 of that. Put your own local box price into the calculator on the psychology page.
Quick answers
What are the odds of a secret from twenty-four boxes (two cases)?
At 1:72 printed odds the chance of at least one secret is 28.5%, and the expected number of secrets is 0.33. Rarer formats are lower: 15.4% at 1:144 and 3.3% at 1:720.
How many boxes would a 50 percent chance take?
At 1:72 it takes 50 boxes for 50 percent and 165 for 90 percent. At 1:144 it is 100 and 331; at 1:720 it is 499 and 1657.