Labubu secret odds for six boxes
The claim this box count disproves
Circulating: “Buy six and you get the complete set.”
Actually: Six boxes drawn independently do not produce six different figures — duplicates are the normal outcome, not bad luck. Six boxes buys you six draws, and the secret is a separate question with its own low rate.
The math, in the open
For six boxes drawn independently, the chance of at least one secret is 1 − (1 − 1/N)6 and the expected count is simply 6/N. Across every reported series format:
| Series format | Printed odds | Chance of at least one secret |
|---|---|---|
| Standard 6-figure series | 1:72 | 8.0% |
| Some collab series (low end) | 1:120 | 4.9% |
| Extended 12-figure series | 1:144 | 4.1% |
| Some collab series (high end) | 1:168 | 3.5% |
| Glow / ultra variants | 1:720 | 0.8% |
How many boxes for a serious chance?
| Printed odds | Boxes for 50% | Boxes for 90% |
|---|---|---|
| 1:72 | 50 | 165 |
| 1:120 | 83 | 276 |
| 1:144 | 100 | 331 |
| 1:168 | 117 | 386 |
| 1:720 | 499 | 1657 |
What that costs — as a multiple, not a price
We do not print prices — they rotate with series and stock. As a multiple: the expected cost of one secret is 72× a single box at 1:72, 144× at 1:144 and 720× at 1:720. Six boxes covers 0.08 of that. Put your own local box price into the calculator on the psychology page.
Quick answers
What are the odds of a secret from six boxes?
At 1:72 printed odds the chance of at least one secret is 8.0%, and the expected number of secrets is 0.08. Rarer formats are lower: 4.1% at 1:144 and 0.8% at 1:720.
How many boxes would a 50 percent chance take?
At 1:72 it takes 50 boxes for 50 percent and 165 for 90 percent. At 1:144 it is 100 and 331; at 1:720 it is 499 and 1657.