{
  "name": "Labubu secret-pull probability by purchase size",
  "description": "Chance of at least one secret figure, expected secret count, and the 50%/90% box thresholds, for each commonly reported blind-box odds format across the purchase sizes people actually buy. Every value is arithmetic over the rates published in rarity-odds.json — this file adds no new rate of its own.",
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "publisher": "https://thedollscout.com/",
  "documentation": "https://thedollscout.com/odds/",
  "isBasedOn": "https://thedollscout.com/data/rarity-odds.json",
  "recorded": "2026-08-31",
  "method": {
    "atLeastOne": "1 - (1 - 1/N)^boxes",
    "expectedCount": "boxes / N",
    "boxesForProbability": "ceil(ln(1-p) / ln(1 - 1/N))",
    "model": "Independent single-box draws at the printed odds."
  },
  "limitations": [
    "The authoritative rate for any series is the one printed on that series' own box; the N values here are collector-reported, inherited from rarity-odds.json along with its sources.",
    "Sealed whole-case allocation can differ from independent single-box draws; every number here models loose boxes.",
    "These are probabilities, not predictions: an expected count of 1 is not a guarantee of 1."
  ],
  "formats": [
    {
      "oddsN": 72,
      "label": "Standard 6-figure series"
    },
    {
      "oddsN": 120,
      "label": "Some collab series (low end)"
    },
    {
      "oddsN": 144,
      "label": "Extended 12-figure series"
    },
    {
      "oddsN": 168,
      "label": "Some collab series (high end)"
    },
    {
      "oddsN": 720,
      "label": "Glow / ultra variants"
    }
  ],
  "purchaseSizes": [
    {
      "boxes": 1,
      "page": "https://thedollscout.com/odds/one-box",
      "byFormat": {
        "72": {
          "atLeastOneSecret": 0.013889,
          "expectedSecrets": 0.013889
        },
        "120": {
          "atLeastOneSecret": 0.008333,
          "expectedSecrets": 0.008333
        },
        "144": {
          "atLeastOneSecret": 0.006944,
          "expectedSecrets": 0.006944
        },
        "168": {
          "atLeastOneSecret": 0.005952,
          "expectedSecrets": 0.005952
        },
        "720": {
          "atLeastOneSecret": 0.001389,
          "expectedSecrets": 0.001389
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "boxes": 6,
      "page": "https://thedollscout.com/odds/six-boxes",
      "byFormat": {
        "72": {
          "atLeastOneSecret": 0.080493,
          "expectedSecrets": 0.083333
        },
        "120": {
          "atLeastOneSecret": 0.04897,
          "expectedSecrets": 0.05
        },
        "144": {
          "atLeastOneSecret": 0.04095,
          "expectedSecrets": 0.041667
        },
        "168": {
          "atLeastOneSecret": 0.035187,
          "expectedSecrets": 0.035714
        },
        "720": {
          "atLeastOneSecret": 0.008304,
          "expectedSecrets": 0.008333
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "boxes": 12,
      "page": "https://thedollscout.com/odds/twelve-boxes-full-case",
      "byFormat": {
        "72": {
          "atLeastOneSecret": 0.154507,
          "expectedSecrets": 0.166667
        },
        "120": {
          "atLeastOneSecret": 0.095542,
          "expectedSecrets": 0.1
        },
        "144": {
          "atLeastOneSecret": 0.080223,
          "expectedSecrets": 0.083333
        },
        "168": {
          "atLeastOneSecret": 0.069136,
          "expectedSecrets": 0.071429
        },
        "720": {
          "atLeastOneSecret": 0.01654,
          "expectedSecrets": 0.016667
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "boxes": 24,
      "page": "https://thedollscout.com/odds/twenty-four-boxes",
      "byFormat": {
        "72": {
          "atLeastOneSecret": 0.285141,
          "expectedSecrets": 0.333333
        },
        "120": {
          "atLeastOneSecret": 0.181955,
          "expectedSecrets": 0.2
        },
        "144": {
          "atLeastOneSecret": 0.15401,
          "expectedSecrets": 0.166667
        },
        "168": {
          "atLeastOneSecret": 0.133492,
          "expectedSecrets": 0.142857
        },
        "720": {
          "atLeastOneSecret": 0.032806,
          "expectedSecrets": 0.033333
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "boxes": 72,
      "page": "https://thedollscout.com/odds/seventy-two-boxes",
      "byFormat": {
        "72": {
          "atLeastOneSecret": 0.63469,
          "expectedSecrets": 1
        },
        "120": {
          "atLeastOneSecret": 0.452566,
          "expectedSecrets": 0.6
        },
        "144": {
          "atLeastOneSecret": 0.394526,
          "expectedSecrets": 0.5
        },
        "168": {
          "atLeastOneSecret": 0.349395,
          "expectedSecrets": 0.428571
        },
        "720": {
          "atLeastOneSecret": 0.095225,
          "expectedSecrets": 0.1
        }
      }
    }
  ],
  "thresholds": {
    "72": {
      "boxesFor50pct": 50,
      "boxesFor90pct": 165,
      "expectedBoxesPerSecret": 72
    },
    "120": {
      "boxesFor50pct": 83,
      "boxesFor90pct": 276,
      "expectedBoxesPerSecret": 120
    },
    "144": {
      "boxesFor50pct": 100,
      "boxesFor90pct": 331,
      "expectedBoxesPerSecret": 144
    },
    "168": {
      "boxesFor50pct": 117,
      "boxesFor90pct": 386,
      "expectedBoxesPerSecret": 168
    },
    "720": {
      "boxesFor50pct": 499,
      "boxesFor90pct": 1657,
      "expectedBoxesPerSecret": 720
    }
  }
}